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Boo-ris Johnson: Barwell predicts end for PM could be close

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As Boris Johnson is booed by royalists gathered outside St Paul’s Cathedral for the latest part of the Platinum Jubilee celebrations, a former colleague lays out the weaknesses of the Prime Minister’s position as a result of Partygate, and the damage he is inflicting on the Tory Party

Long to reign over us?: Boris Johnson was booed when attending a Jubilee service this morning

Lord Barwell, the former Conservative MP for Croydon Central, has this week doubled down in his commentary on the many shortcomings of lying, philandering and bungling Boris Johnson as Prime Minister.

After losing his parliamentary seat at the 2017 General Election, Gavin Barwell became chief of staff to Theresa May when she was in No10, and he was a key part of the Downing Street negotiating team which tried to construct some kind of deal out of the mess caused by Brexit.

A procession of current Tory MPs, including Carshalton and Wallington’s Elliot Colburn but not either junior ministers Paul Scully (Sutton and Cheam) nor Chris Philp (Croydon South), have been handing in letters of no confidence in the Prime Minister, following the findings of the long-awaited Gray Report into the lockdown law-breaking in No10.

Barwell has become a regular critic of his former colleague, Johnson, and this week via Twitter, he offered up this:

Old mates: Gavin Barwell and Johnson made a meal of the Westfield deal for Croydon town centre

“A thread on the strengths and weaknesses of the Prime Minister’s position from someone who knows what it’s like to sit there in No10 conscious that at some point the threshold for a vote of no confidence is likely to be reached.

“Let’s start with the good news for the PM. First, it’s not easy to evict him.

“Nearly half the [Conservative] parliamentary party are on the payroll and whilst a few may vote against him in a secret ballot, many will feel a loyalty towards him

“Plus MPs are reluctant to publicly say they have no confidence in their leader because if they don’t succeed in evicting him, they are then in a difficult situation at the next election

“Second, the PM is a proven winner. Whoever you blame for the deep hole the Conservative Party had got itself into in the spring of 2019, he got the party out of it. Some MPs will feel he won them their seats

“Third, there is no obvious successor. If Rishi Sunak hadn’t got into difficulties a few weeks ago, the PM would probably already have been evicted, but MPs are reluctant to move against him when they have no idea who they would get next

“And finally, Conservative MPs don’t see Keir Starmer as a big threat. Yes Boris Johnson is unpopular right now, but maybe, they say to themselves, he could still beat Starmer

“Now for the bad news. First, the number of MPs publicly declaring the PM should go is creeping up *without any organised effort to get more letters in*

No threat: Barwell doesn’t rate the Labour leader’s chances of winning an election

“Second, his critics are from all wings of the party, all parts of the country and a number of different intakes, indicating widespread concerns.

“Third, those concerns are not just about Partygate and its impact on his popularity, but also about the lack of any coherent direction. Some MPs are uncomfortable with right-wing populism eg sending asylum seekers to Rwanda, others think the government too left-wing on tax.

“Fourth, the PM’s inability to make the Partygate story go away is a big problem.

“There are some MPs who think his behaviour indefensible, but there are others who will defend it but not if it drags on forever. The Privileges Committee investigation will keep it in the news.

“But far and away the biggest problem is the damage to the PM’s standing with the public.

“The latest YouGov polls show nearly 60per cent of voters think he should resign, including 27per cent of Conservative voters, and the party is on course to lose virtually every battleground seat.

“His supporters argue that given time he can regain his standing, but there is zero evidence of this so far. He has done well on Ukraine, but it has made no difference to the numbers saying he should go.

“The Tiverton by-election may prove pivotal if we get to 23 June without a confidence vote. If MPs in safe seats conclude that not only might he not win the next election but he could cost them their seats, then the game will be up.

“Right now, it feels like we are heading for a confidence vote at some point which he might narrowly win.

“If the PM seeks to carry on in those circumstances (as I suspect he would) that would be the worst outcome for the Conservative Party.”

Read more: ‘The Prime Minister admits he lied’ says Tory Lord Barwell

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