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‘The dog that didn’t bite’: how ULEZ has become a non-issue

Just 1-in-200 Londoners are impacted by the extension of ULEZ to outer London and are paying a £12.50 fine for driving older, more-polluting vehicles in the capital.

That’s the findings of a Freedom of Information request conducted by BBC London, and comes eight months after the expansion of the air pollution-reducing measure to outer London, including Croydon.

Zack Polanski, who has been a London Assembly Member for the Green Party since 2021, in a podcast interview with Inside Croydon, described the ULEZ expansion as “the dog that didn’t bite”, a policy which has been framed as “controversial”, yet which the majority of Londoners have quickly realised does not affect their lifestyles whatsoever.

What ULEZ expansion does appear to have accomplished, however, is an improvement in air quality in outer London. Provisional monitoring data suggests that pollution has reduced in boroughs such as Croydon, Bromley and Sutton since August, when the Ultra Low Emission Zone was extended.

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This will cause a significant dent in the London election campaign of Harrow hairdresser and Donald Trump fan Susan Hall, who has clasped tightly to the misleading and deceptive anti-ULEZ rhetoric of her yellow-board, anti-vax mates, and the likes of climate change-denier Piers Corbyn.

Tory Mayoral candidate Hall has pledged to remove ULEZ from “Day 1” if she is elected (of which there is diminishing little chance, thank goodness).

Yet anti-pollution campaigners say that London’s toxic air pollution has improved since the ULEZ expansion.

Nearly 10,000 Londoners die each year of illnesses related to the city’s air pollution, which cross-party organisation London Councils say is costing the NHS in the capital up to £3.7billion per year.

More than 500,000 Londoners suffer from asthma and are vulnerable to the effects of toxic air. More than half of these people live in outer London, based on NHS data.

Last year’s ULEZ changes might, just might, be a step towards improving those horror statistics.

Clean Air in London has looked at provisional online monitoring data in outer London and says it shows nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations generally lower in the first six months since ULEZ expansion than the comparable period in 2022 to 2023.

The data is unverified, and could be variable due to many factors. But Simon Birkett, from Clean Air in London, told the BBC, “We have seen sharp reductions in nitrogen dioxide concentrations when the ULEZ was introduced in central London and inner London and that’s what we are expecting to see in outer London.

“It is a path that we are travelling down which is compliance rates, signs of nitrogen dioxide coming down, and then verification.”

Official pollution data will not be available until May or June.

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Hard data is available, though, for the number of drivers of non-compliant vehicles paying the daily £12.50 toll, and according to its FoI response, the BBC found that on average just 45,222 vehicles are affected by the charge.

Another 30,725 users of non-compliant vehicles still drive in the zone but are not charged due to various dispensations.

These figures demonstrate how few people are actually subject to the ULEZ charges, with 95.8% of vehicles recorded on London’s roads now compliant.

London-wide, the Ultra-Low Emission Zone has generated more than £130million since last August, with Transport for London predicting that income from the scheme will dwindle to almost nothing by 2026 as drivers switch away from more polluting vehicles.

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