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Burnham’s election could make all the difference in Croydon

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Political pantomime: having been once blocked by the Labour Party from standing in a by-election in the north-west, Andy Burnham saw off all challengers in Makerfield on Thursday

Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election this week. Here, ANDREW FISHER outlines what the result could mean for Britain, and for Croydon and its politicians

When I interviewed journalist Peter Geoghegan earlier this month, I put to him that his work had caused probably the most consequential by-election in British political history.

Geoghegan’s award-winning journalism exposed the role played by Labour Together, and how its then-director, Josh Simons, had hired a company to spy on journalists investigating his organisations dodgy donations. Ahead of the 2024 General Election, Simons was parachuted into the safe Labour seat of Makerfield in Greater Manchester, and duly became its MP. It was not long before Simons was given a junior post in Keir Starmer’s government.

But the exposure of his past machinations ended Simons’ fledgling ministerial career, and plausibly led to him deciding to end his tenure as an MP after just two years in office – making way for Andy Burnham.

Burnham’s overwhelming victory in the Makerfield by-election – where he beat Reform by 20% – looks as if it will trigger an earthquake in British politics.

Burnham is now likely to become Prime Minister in short order, despite Keir Starmer’s claims that he will fight on. Less than 24 hours after polls closed, ministers in his own cabinet are already telling Starmer to go.

Landslide: Burnham increased Labour’s vote share in Makerfield, where Tories, Greens and LibDems all failed to get even 1,000 votes

Burnham’s victory is also a severe setback for Reform. Makerfield had been their sixth highest showing at the 2024 General Election and was 29th on Farage’s party’s target list. With Reform having won every council seat in the constituency at last month’s local elections, they were confident they could win.

“Andy Burnham is going to lose Makerfield and he’s going to lose it by some way,” was the prediction of Reform’s former (failed) parliamentary candidate Matthew Goodwin.

Labour had lost the Runcorn by-election to Reform in 2025 and was beaten into third by them and the victorious Greens in Gorton and Denton in February this year. So Makerfield was never going to be a walkover. What Burnham did, which will be decisive for Labour MPs considering the Prime Minister’s future, was win back voters for Labour who had been abstaining, voting Green or Liberal Democrat. He reunited a progressive bloc of voters who have been alienated by Starmer.

In recent months, in England, Wales and Scotland, the Greens, Plaid Cymru and the SNP had been positioning themselves as the party to stop Reform. Under Burnham, Labour has a real chance of reclaiming that crown.

Campaign video: Rowenna Davis in Croydon borrowed pointers from Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham

Last month, in Croydon’s mayoral election, we saw how the left vote splintered between Labour and the Greens. Could Andy Burnham as Prime Minister restore a progressive coalition of voters under Labour’s banner?

Rowenna Davis’s campaign for Croydon Mayor was influenced by the Greater Manchester Mayor, as she posted videos of herself in discussion with Burnham on social media.

On May 7, while Starmer’s Labour went backwards across London, in Croydon, Labour’s vote held up. Davis closed the gap on Tory incumbent Mayor Jason Perry. But the Green surge, mostly at the expense of Labour, meant Davis just missed out.

Croydon’s next mayoral election is four years away, but Davis would be forgiven for thinking that the edge provided by Burnham as Labour leader might have been enough to put her in office.

The prospects for another Croydon Labour figure may not be so good. Steve Reed, the MP for Streatham and Croydon North, has been one of Starmer’s most loyal defenders, accusing those wanting to challenge Starmer of indulging in a “psychodrama”.

The public, and most Labour members,  are very clear. Burnham is the most popular politician in the country, while Starmer is the least popular Prime Minister in polling history. The manner of Burnham’s victory in Makerfield has not gone unnoticed by Reed’s ministerial colleagues, as some have already called on the Prime Minister to set out a timetable for his departure.

An incoming Prime Minister will want his own team around him, and Labour Together co-founder Reed could find himself on the backbenches.

Another question is whether Burnham as Labour leader with a changed agenda could win back disgruntled Labour members and bolster the party’s activist numbers which have dwindled in the last six years under Starmer: the membership total is suggested to have fallen below 250,000, based on internal party figures leaked and reported, down from the 552,835 members the party officially held when Starmer took over as leader in April 2020.

Put that on the side of a bus: Andy Burnham has a successful record of delivery in Manchester

Burnham definitely seems to be taking a more ambitious approach than Starmer. “A vote for me is a vote to end 40 years of trickle-down economics … it is a vote to bring down water bills, energy bills, to make life more affordable again,” he said on the eve of the by-election.

Burnham can point to his time as Greater Manchester Mayor, when he reversed the 40-year experiment of bus deregulation, took on the private bus companies, capped fares and improved services.

He has a record of delivery, but the scale of the challenge he might face now, if he becomes Prime Minister, is of a whole different order.

The cost-of-living crisis is why the Conservatives were kicked out so emphatically in 2024. Burnham is raising the right issues, and in doing so has shown he can reunite the progressive vote behind Labour.

Whether he can fix Britain is unclear, but what is beyond doubt now is that he is currently Labour’s and the country’s best hope.

Andrew Fisher’s recent columns:

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