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Labour’s scandals and dramas reflected in Croydon politics

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Dampened: there was a subdued atmosphere at the 2024 Labour Party Conference. Since then, things have only got worse

The 2025 Labour Party Conference begins in Liverpool on Sunday. Here, our columnist, ANDREW FISHER, pictured right, the party’s former director of policy, assesses the state of Labour little more than a year into Keir Starmer’s government. And he takes a look at the chaos in ‘Your Party’

I’ve been going to Labour’s annual conference for more than 25 years. From the early New Labour days of “Things can only get better” to the “Oh Jeremy Corbyn” years and since, I’ve attended as a visitor, a worker and as a member of the press.

Last year, the freebies scandal, the cuts to winter fuel payments and the rows between Sue Gray and Morgan McSweeney dampened what should have been the triumphal mood after Labour won a landslide majority at the General Election little more than two months earlier.

Since then, things have only got worse.

Labour is now polling at an average of 20% in the national polls – having lost more than one-third of its support since the July 2024 election, while Keir Starmer’s popularity has sunk to lows not seen since the brief days of Liz Truss, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, “the King of the North”, is being talked up as a replacement, and the government has been plagued by a series of scandals, from Angela Rayner to Lord Mandelson, and Paul Ovenden to Morgan McSweeney.

Recent polling by Survation and Labourlist finds that Starmer’s favourability rating among Labour’s own members is -33, and 67% of Labour members think the party is going in the wrong direction.

‘The King of the North’: it’s all a bit Game of Thrones, as Andy Burnham’s prospects of becoming Labour leader are discussed in the Conference week edition of New Statesman

A proxy war is now being fought through the deputy leadership contest in the wake of Rayner’s resignation, and a hustings will be held on the final day of conference between Bridget Phillipson (the education secretary) and Lucy Powell (who Starmer recently sacked from his cabinet).

Phillipson opened her campaign by demanding the party stay united. Powell, in contrast, pitched herself as the “independent” candidate. Whatever her protestations to the contrary, Phillipson is seen as the leadership-backed continuity candidate, and Powell (endorsed by Burnham) as the change candidate.

This is reflected in how Croydon’s Labour MPs have lined up.

Ministers Steve Reed and Sarah Jones have backed Phillipson, while Croydon East backbencher Natasha Irons has backed Powell. Polling currently suggests that Powell will win.

And what of change in Croydon? How will Labour’s current woes affect the mayoral campaign of Waddon councillor Rowenna Davis? 

Her campaign launch event at Tokia Square was well-enough attended, but it paled next to the large mobilisations of members and activists that Croydon Labour saw in 2017 and 2019. Membership of the party nationally has plummeted by more than 200,000 since 2020 – and that is being reflected locally, too.

Campaign launch: hundreds of Labour members and supporters turned out off Surrey Street on a wet November morning in 2019. Party member figures have fallen since

Labour appears to be struggling to find enough candidates for next May’s Town Hall elections, with 28 councillor candidates yet to be named for 13 of the borough’s 28 wards.

In a selection process being managed by the National Executive Committee and London region officials (and not Croydon Labour), surprisingly the party has not yet confirmed candidates in the normally closely contested New Addington wards. A Labour official has told Inside Croydon that the remaining councillor candidates will be announced after party conference.

Data from the British Election Survey shows Labour is losing votes to the left (to the LibDems, the Greens and independents) at about twice the rate that it is losing votes to the right (to Reform or the Tories).

We are seeing that happen in Croydon, where the Greens are targeting the third seat in Fairfield ward (where they won their first two Croydon council seats in 2022), and they are looking to make inroads in Labour-held South Norwood, too. The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, are looking to build on their foothold in Crystal Palace and Upper Norwood ward.

In Zack Polanski, the Greens have just elected an articulate, dynamic leader not afraid of taking on opponents in debate. The Green Party has reportedly increased their membership by 20,000 in the past month alone – and is now polling above 10% on average nationally.

Green power: new leader Zack Polanski (right) has been able to welcome defectors from Labour on the steps of Brixton Town Hall

The added enthusiasm for the Greens has been reflected in a spate of recent by-election victories (and some defections) that have seen the Greens gain councillors in Haringey, Lambeth and Greenwich.

What effect Reform could have in Croydon in taking votes from the Conservatives next year is less clear. Their farcical selection of a dead woman as their candidate for Croydon Mayor does not reflect well on their local level of organisation, but it is also possible that between now and next May, we could see some Croydon Conservative councillor defections to Reform, just as there have been elsewhere across the country.

Certainly, feedback from Tory sources in the south of the borough suggest that the Conservatives anticipate losing council seats to Reform.

Of course, a lot can happen between now and next May – both nationally and locally – and you would need to be a very brave person indeed to bet that further scandals and usual levels of incompetence won’t affect each or any of the main parties in contention in Croydon.

Where there has been considerable controversy in the past fortnight has been in the formative steps, but mostly mis-steps, of Your Party – the new party being founded by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana.

They launched their membership scheme this week, for a second time, and it is rumoured to be having its founding conference in November.

Undeterred by national shenanigans, local enthusiasts for the nascent party in Croydon held a second organising meeting in Ruskin House last night, but it remains unclear if they will be selecting a mayoral or council candidates for next May. If they do, it could only add further permutations to the increasingly pluralist politics of our borough.

Andrew Fisher’s recent columns:

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