On the eve of the General Election, JOHN BRAGGINS finds the polls are not offering much insight on the result, the bookies are hoping to hedge their bets on their favourite, and UKIP is employing eastern Europeans. So no change at all…
Hence the Cameron 36-hour non-stop chase around the country and virtually the entire media imploring voters to vote Conservative (except for the Guardian/ Observer). Still Ed has Rusty Rockets behind him, Steve Coogan by his side and Delia Smith urging him on from the touchline. Game over then.
And talking of the media, I recommend this article by my good friend Ivor Gaber who shows that this time, if Cameron wins, it won’t be just The Sun wot won it.
We are now due a flood of opinion polls from: Survation, Populus, TNS-BMRB, Ashcroft, ICM, Opinium, Ipsos-MORI, ComRes, Panelbase and YouGov. And the latest poll from Populus puts the two parties’ neck and neck – as they were in the last poll: CON – 34% (+1) LAB – 34% (+1) UKIP – 13% (-2) LIBDEM – 10% (+1).
Lord Ashcroft’s poll has the Tory lead cut by 4 per cent: CON – 32% (-4) LAB – 30% (-) UKIP – 12% (+1) LIBDEM – 11% (+2) GRN – 7% (-).
And the betting markets are favouring either a Cameron majority or Cameron coalition. You’ve got to wonder how much of that money is put on because they hope the Tories will win, rather than treating it as an investment that will pay out. It would be like putting money on QPR to win: you’d feel good doing it but you’d never get a pay out.
And some UKIP news – the Labour agent in Dover has defected to UKIP, and elsewhere I see in The Independent that their leaflets are being delivered by eastern European workers.
“UKIP the political party that distributes flyers that claim ‘British workers are hit hard by unlimited foreign labour’ have been labelled as hypocrites after it was found that those distributing these flyers were Eastern European.
“According to Andrew Spalis, the co-owner of leafleting firm Fast Leaflet, the company used by UKIP to distribute party literature, most of those that work as part of his team are originally from Eastern Europe and have moved to Britain in search of work.
“Spalis said the company which covers London and the South East has only been in business in its current state for a few months but already has a workforce that is predominantly from Eastern Europe.”
- John Braggins, pictured, worked for the Labour Party for 10 years leading up to the 1997 General Election. He was head of local government for Labour from 2000 to 2002 and senior press officer for the newly formed Greater London Assembly
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