According to polling by a Conservative Party donor, the Tory candidate for London Mayor is Susan Who? Then again, some voters think the City Hall chief is George Clooney… By our Political Editor, WALTER CRONXITE

No opposition: Sadiq Khan looks set to win a third term as London Mayor, according to polling

Jeremy Corbyn could stand as an independent candidate for Mayor of London next May and Sadiq Khan would still win the election for Labour with a handsome 19% lead.

That’s the findings, published today, by Tory pollster Lord Michael Ashcroft (Gavin Barwell’s old boss), six months ahead of the 2024 London elections.

Mayor Khan, with the support of 50% of the electorate were Corbyn not to stand as a candidate, looks set to become the first London Mayor to win a third term, according to Ashcroft’s polling.

According to former Conservative Party deputy chairman Ashcroft, the recognition factor among Londoners for the Tories’ mayoral candidate, Harrow hairdresser Susan Hall, is remarkably low – at just 7%. It’s so low, Ashcroft says, that many Tory voters probably won’t even bother turning out to vote next May.

There is some good news, though, for Assembly Member Hall: most voters think she’s a better candidate than Shaun Bailey. Though that is a very low bar.

“Any number of things could change to shift this picture,” Ashcroft has written in today’s edition of the Evening Boris.

Susan Who?: no one else thinks the Tory will win the London Mayor vote

“Khan could get something badly wrong; Hall could alight on a signature policy powerful enough to mobilise an anti-Khan coalition while distancing herself from Westminster Tories…

“A prominent left-wing candidate could outflank the Mayor and eat into the Labour base. We might even see a change of fortunes nationally.

“But with six months to go, it is clear that dislodging Sadiq Khan will take some doing.”

Tax-avoiding billionaire Ashcroft retains some influence in Tory circles. But his barely disguised disdain for Conservative candidate Hall, selected when Sutton MP Paul Scully was not allowed on the party’s own ballot paper, sings out throughout his measured Standard piece.

It’s not all plain sailing for the Labour Mayor, though, according to Ashcroft.

Many question what Khan has actually achieved in his eight years in office, and there are particular concerns over the Mayor’s effectiveness over rising crime numbers and the management of the Metropolitan Police.

“Many feel that life in the capital is going downhill,” Ashcroft writes.

“Hair-raising stories about crime have become commonplace in areas once considered safe and peaceful…

Clear margin: Ashcroft’s mayoral poll, without Jeremy Corbyn among the candidates

“People complain that traffic is worse, not because of the volume of cars but due to an irritating web of road closures and parking restrictions apparently designed to rake in revenue from exorbitant fines rather than ease congestion.

“Housing is so scarce that renters are compelled to snap up flats without a viewing.

“In the outer boroughs, people feel the less desirable aspects of inner London life creeping closer to home – not least ULEZ.

“My poll found that in general, the more people care about an issue, the lower they rate Khan’s performance on it. Though voters gave him good ratings for attracting international investment, investing in the arts and speaking out against the government, they gave him their lowest score for their biggest Mayoral priority: tackling crime.”

Unrecognisable: Fewer than 1-in-14 of Londoners polled recognised Susan Who?

Looking at his latest polling report, Ashcroft says, “When we asked Londoners how they currently intended to vote in the 2024 Mayoral election and, separately, the next General Election also expected next year, the results were very similar.”

Ashcroft’s poll shows Labour ahead in a General Election by 28 points in London (by 51% to 23%) and by 16 points in Britain as a whole (by 43% to 27%). Ashcroft notes that this represents a smaller swing (6%) to Labour since the 2019 General Election in London, where Labour support was already high, than in Britain more widely (14%).

“When it came to the Mayoral election, we found Sadiq Khan on 50%, followed by Conservative Susan Hall on 23%, LibDem candidate Rob Blackie on 10%, Zoe Garbett of the Greens on 7% and Reform UK’s Howard Cox on 5%.”

According to Ashcroft, 14% of Londoners who voted Conservative at the 2019 General Election say that they will vote for Labour’s Khan in the 2024 London elections.

Independently minded: the polls considered what might happen if Jeremy Corbyn ran for London Mayor

Khan received a majority of all voters up to the age of 44 (including 64% of 18-24s), 63% of Asian and 65% of black voters, while 48% of those aged 65 or over said they would vote for Hall.

The Corbyn wildcard provided Ashcroft with an interesting set of data.

It follows up a persistent rumour that that the former Labour Party leader, having had the whip removed from him in the House of Commons, is considering “doing a Ken”, and repeating what his old colleague, Ken Livingstone, did in 2000 by defying Labour’s right-wing leadership.

Back in 2000, in that first-ever London mayoral election, the Blairite Labour Party snubbed the former leader of the GLC and inserted the affable Frank Dobson as their candidate. Livingstone became London Mayor with almost 58% of the second-round votes.

Sources close to Corbyn suggest that, whatever his current, personal circumstance, the MP for Islington North since 1983 is unlikely to want to act in a way that might work against Londoners – such as splitting the mayoral vote and letting a Tory win the election.

Joker in the pack: Ashcroft’s findings if Corbyn was a runner

Some cynics suggest that Ashcroft deliberately polled on this question to provide encouragement to 74-year-old Corbyn to stand for Mayor, setting a trap to provoke the kind of internecine strife among left-leaning Londoners that could catastrophically damage Khan’s campaign.

Of his results, Ashcroft explains: “In this scenario Corbyn came third with 14% of the vote, including 22% of those who voted Labour at the 2019 general election.

“Khan’s vote share fell to 41% and his lead over Hall fell to 19 points – though he still topped the poll comfortably. Corbyn’s support was highest among 18-24s (19%) and black voters (22%), though 51% of both these groups said they would still support Khan.”

As far as Susan Who?’s numbers are concerned, Ashcroft says, “In each of our [focus] groups, a few participants had heard her name but few knew much about her so far. Some had heard that she had promised to reverse the ULEZ expansion if elected.

Mayor of London: George Clooney

“Those who had seen her in action considered her a better candidate than Shaun Bailey, but most doubted that she had a realistic chance of victory. Partly for this reason, even some of those who had been critical of Khan’s record were not sure they would turn out to vote in May.”

It’s not all good news for Mayor Khan. Or maybe it is…

As Ashcroft notes: while 77% of Londoners correctly identified a picture of Khan, some mistook him for Rishi Sunak, others thought it was Jose Mourinho, and some even said it was George Clooney.

Read more: Newman Numpty Henson allowed to run for Assembly selection
Read more: Exasperated MP Scully sorely wounded by the ‘Spanish archer’
Read more: Perry should apologise for anti-ULEZ Facebook group says MP

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