Survey predicts MP Barwell is facing capital ‘punishment’

Even the Evening Boris is predicting that Gavin Barwell, the MP for the Whitgift Foundation, will lose his parliamentary seat at the General Election in 100 days time.

Looking for a new job? Gavin Barwell

Looking for a new job? Gavin Barwell

Barwell had London Mayor Boris Johnson attend his glitzy campaign launch last year, but London’s evening paper, noted for its unquestioning support of the buffoon at City Hall, could not make the numbers look any better for the Croydon Central Tory MP in a capital-focused poll published last night which shows Barwell to be one of six Conservatives likely to lose their seats on May 7, among 10 London seats held by members of the ConDem Government which will change hands.

According to the Standard’s poll, support for Labour in London has risen by 1 per cent since December, to 42 per cent.

In Greater London polling, the Tories are down by 1 per cent, to 32 per cent, the FibDems have fallen 2 per cent in one month, to 7 per cent, while UKIP is up 1 to 10 per cent and the Greens up 2 to 8 per cent.

Based on those figures, Government whip Barwell is set to lose to Labour’s Sarah Jones in Croydon Central, while two prominent south London ConDem figures, Simon Hughes, the LibDems’ deputy leader in Bermondsey, and former Health Minister Paul Burstow in Sutton and Cheam, look vulnerable.

Predicting eight gains for Labour in London at the 2015 General Election will also indicate that after Johnson finally departs City Hall as Mayor, whoever gets their party’s nomination in the 2016 London election (David Lammy, the Tottenham MP, Tessa Jowell who is stepping down in Dulwich and Norwood, and the transport guru, outsider Christian Wolmar are among those expected to seek the role) ought to have a strong chance of becoming the city’s third Mayor.

How the Evening Standard/YouGov poll predicts the outcome of London's parliamentary seats last night

How the Evening Standard/YouGov poll predicts the outcome of London’s parliamentary seats

London polling ought not to be taken as indicative of voting intentions across the rest of the country, however. Barwell’s old boss, Lord Cashcroft, gave the Tories a one-point lead in his latest extensive national survey published yesterday.

But the capital punishment facing Burstow, who is vulnerable to the Tories, and Hughes, who has held his seat in inner London Southwark for 30 years, demonstrate how bad things have got for their party in London. The YouGov/Evening Standard survey has Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats pushed into fifth place in London for the first time since 2010.

The bad news for Barwell will hardly come as much of a shock, though. Ashcroft had him 6 per cent behind Jones in constituency polling in November, and his much-ridiculed campaigning continues to struggle to get noticed for the right reasons. The defeat in Addiscombe, Woodside, Ashburton, New Addington and Fieldway wards in last year’s local elections was hard-felt by Barwell, and the impact on local party fund-raising continues to bite.

But here at Inside Croydon, we’re confident that a capable political operator (ha!) such as Barwell will find himself a cosy directorship with an international firm of developers should he join the ranks of the unemployed come May 8. Zero hours contracts, however, could be in prospect for the six people Barwell pays out of public funds in his parliamentary and constituency offices.

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News, views and analysis about the people of Croydon, their lives and political times in the diverse and most-populated borough in London. Based in Croydon and edited by Steven Downes. To contact us, please email
This entry was posted in 2014 council elections, 2015 General Election, Boris Johnson, Croydon Central, Gavin Barwell, Paul Burstow MP, Sarah Jones MP, Sutton Council and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Survey predicts MP Barwell is facing capital ‘punishment’

  1. davidjl2014 says:

    I am pretty sure all of you at Inside Croydon will be rejoicing unanimously when the “MP for the Whitgift Foundation” gets a good hiding in 100 days time. Whitgift… what an odious institution it is. There for the privileged. The millionaires. Those evil people. Those 1% of British human beings that pay 32% of the Gross Income tax in this country. Let’s smash them this time eh? Hit them hard.
    Better still, let’s start an Inside Croydon campaign to shut Whitgift School down. After all, we don’t want to produce students who are intelligent, and go on to run private businesses that employ people and eventually make profit out of it do we? Yes “profit”, the dirtiest word in the Labour Party’s manifesto. (Pathetic isn’t it).
    I wont vote for Barwell, but urge people to think. THINK SERIOUSLY about what happened to this country under 13 years of Labour control that left us £1.3 Trillion in debt. A debt our children’s children will struggle to pay. Inside Croydon’s naivety of this fact beggars belief, and in consequence, their irresponsible journalism becomes a satire almost beyond comprehension.

    • Well. Feeling better now that you got that rant out of your system?

      “Irresponsible journalism”? Really? How? You don’t say. You just string together a load of old blather which has no relationship to anything that has ever been published by this website.

      Presumably, you will defend Barwell’s position on the Whitgift Foundation, while serving as an MP for an area which is undergoing a £1 billion redevelopment on behalf of… the Whitgift Foundation, just as you’ll defend Tricky Dicky Ottaway’s rights to claim MP’s expenses for his gardening, or #WadGate’s Mike Fisher’s secretive allowance claims.

      We’re publishing this comment for one reason: our policy forbids anonymous postings. Come back when you’ve got the backbone to put your real name to your comments, and we’ll consider publishing your half-baked, frothing-mouthed thoughts.

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