Bob Dylan, John Cleese and Glenda Jackson’s son having an orgasm (not a pretty thought): JOHN BRAGGINS takes a more careful look at what some pollsters and pundits have been passing off as fact as we enter the final week of the General Election campaign
So, according to Dan Hodges it’s over. He’s called it for the Conservatives and we can all go home.
Now he might be right. But I believe the real result will not be the final opinion poll results (providing they are still relatively close) but what happens in the top 50 or so Tory marginals, including Croydon Central. As Bob Dylan sang:
And don’t speak too soon
For the wheel’s still in spin
And there’s no telling who that it’s naming
And that wheel is certainly still in spin.
On one hand we have the poll that caused Dan Hodges an orgasm – the Ipsos/Mori that gave the Conservatives a 5 per cent lead from being 2 per cent behind; the England and Wales only figures from yesterday’s YouGov poll CON 36 LAB 35 LibDems 9 UKIP 13 – a CON to LAB swing since the 2010 General Election of 4.6 per cent and last night’s Panelbase poll giving Miliband’s team a 2 point lead LAB – 34% (-) CON – 32% (+1) UKIP – 17% (-) LibDem – 8% (+1) GRN – 4% (-).
So among all those polls, the “odd one out” is the Ipsos/Mori poll and that’s one that I’m prepared to stick my neck out and say was a rogue poll. Not because I want it to be a rogue, but because of, well let Mike Smithson from Political Betting, take up the story…
“The big feature from today’s dramatic Ipsos/MORI poll was that only 63 per cent of 2010 LAB voters said they would still vote for that party. This is totally out of line with other recent surveys which generally have had LAB with the highest rates of 2010 retention.
“Quite what caused this I don’t know but I understand that there was some debate within the firm about whether to publish the poll at all. Like all these things the important matter now is to see whether other pollsters also pick up the same trend which could have a dramatic impact on next Thursday’s result.”
And so to last night’s Question Time debate.
No one fell off the chair – although it appears Ed did stumble off the podium – so no game-changer and the first post-debate poll (ICM) gave it to Cameron: Cameron – 44 per cent Miliband – 38 per cent Clegg – 19per cent. Interestingly ICM found just 6 per cent of viewers changed their mind. Clegg won 32 per cent of switchers, Cam 25 per cent and Ed 20 per cent.
Then there’s the figures released last night for the YouGov/Sun poll: Lab up 1 and Tories down 1: CON 34 per cent, LAB 35 per cent, LibDems 8 per cent, UKIP 12 per cent, GRN 5 per cent.
Keeping to my musical theme, as the Monkees once sang
Cheer up, Sleepy Jean.
Oh, what can it mean?
Well what it means in seat totals “Britain Elects” gives Labour 273, Conservatives 270, LibDems 26, SNP 56, UKIP 2 and Greens 1.
Let’s not call the election just yet, after all the wheel’s still in spin.
Elsewhere a lovely tweet from John Cleese: “Ed was right about Lynton Crosby. If the Tories needed an Aussie to run their campaign, why didn’t they pick one of the millions of nice ones.”
- John Braggins, pictured, worked for the Labour Party for 10 years leading up to the 1997 General Election. He was head of local government for Labour from 2000 to 2002 and senior press officer for the newly formed Greater London Assembly
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