Khan braced for Tory attacks as poll gives him 20% lead

London election graphicIn what is probably the final, meaningful opinion poll (oxymoron klaxon) before voting in the London elections next Thursday, Labour’s Sadiq Khan – “the council estate boy from south London” – appears on track to become the capital’s third mayor, beating Tory Old Etonian #BackZacAndCrack Goldsmith by 20 per cent after second preferences.

Marina Ahmad campaigning in Croydon earlier this month with Labour's candidate for Mayor, Sadiq Khan

Labour’s Croydon and Sutton candidate Marina Ahmad with Sadiq Khan

The Survation poll, published on Thursday, puts Khan on 60 per cent to Goldsmith’s 40per cent. It is possibly more significant, given the general distrust of polling reliability following the 2015 experience, in that it is an identical result to that found by YouGov a week earlier.

And that could be very worrying news for Tory do-nothing Steve O’Connell, who is seeking a third term of generous allowances and freebie Palace tickets as the London Assembly Member for Croydon and Sutton, as the quietly impressive Marina Ahmad requires just a 3 per cent swing from the 2012 vote to become the boroughs’ first Labour Party AM.

But Labour will take little comfort from the polling, since they fear that the wide margin in favour of Khan may lead to complacency among supporters and a low turn-out, giving the better-resourced Tories a chance to snatch an unlikely victory.

And the threat of a Lynton Crosby-inspired eve-of-polls media blitz suggests that an already narky campaign might yet become nastier still.

The London Mayor ballot is that rarity in English democracy, in offering a hint of election reform by seeking electors’ first and second preferences.

According to this polling, Khan could come very close to becoming London Mayor on first preferences alone, with nearly half of the vote.

The result of this week’s Survation poll, based on those first preferences, holds little prospect of candidates from third (or fourth) parties making much of a breakthrough, with UKIP’s Peter Whittle the “best of the rest” on a mere 5%:

  1. Sadiq Khan (Labour) 49%
  2. Zac Goldsmith (Conservative) 34%
  3. Peter Whittle (Back to 1954 Party) 5%
  4. Caroline Pidgeon (Liberal Democrats) 3%
  5. Sian Berry (Green) 3%
  6. George Galloway (George Galloway) 2%

There are six other candidates, none of whom managed to poll more than 1 per cent.

 

There remain, though, good reasons for scepticism about Khan’s prospects of becoming London Mayor next Friday.

For one, the polling was conducted before the latest Labour Party clusterfuck, as Ken Livingstone cowered in a disabled toilet in between touring every broadcast studio that would have him. London’s first – and for many, best – Mayor was promptly suspended from the Labour Party, a move welcomed by Marina Ahmad and firmly endorsed by a clearly angry Khan.

But the real damage done to Labour’s credibility as an electoral force can’t be assessed until the votes are counted next week.

And then there’s the race issue.

According to politics.co.uk’s Adam Bienkov, there remains concern about “the famous ‘Bradley effect’ turning Labour voters away from electing the first ethnic minority Mayor of London”.

Bienkov also reports that, “Goldsmith’s campaign plans a new blitz of attacks against Khan in the run-up to polling day, in a last bid to turn opinion against the front-runner. Some believe an eve of polling-day surprise, backed by a press which is heavily hostile to Labour, could still steal the show.”


 

About insidecroydon

News, views and analysis about the people of Croydon, their lives and political times in the diverse and most-populated borough in London. Based in Croydon and edited by Steven Downes. To contact us, please email inside.croydon@btinternet.com
This entry was posted in Caroline Pidgeon, Ken Livingstone, London Assembly, London-wide issues, Marina Ahmad, Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, Sian Berry, Zac Goldsmith MP and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to Khan braced for Tory attacks as poll gives him 20% lead

  1. davidjl2014 says:

    The truth is, that we don’t need a Mayor of London, or a London Assembly any more than we needed the Greater London Council. What a complete waste of public money that was, and this is no different. Remember when Ken Livingstone ran it and the joke it turned into? Precisely why it was abolished. We never learn from our mistakes in this country until it’s too late.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s