Croydon is to get an extra MP under far-reaching proposed changes to parliamentary constituencies released overnight by the Boundary Commission for England.
Under changes which have been years in the making, England will have the number of seats in the House of Commons increased from 533 to 543; London’s current 73 seats will go up to 75.
By extending Croydon’s reach with the inclusion of wards in Merton and Lambeth, the borough’s three parliamentary seats will become four: Croydon North, Norwood, Croydon East and Croydon South.
If finally approved – and that process will take another two years – the four constituencies will replace the Croydon North, Croydon Central and Croydon South seats that have existed since the Commissioners’ last review was completed and implemented in 2010.
The aim of the exercise is to make every constituency’s population of registered voters close to the average of just under 73,400.
The changes as revealed this morning create two very safe Labour seats – Croydon North and Norwood – a marginal Croydon East that will swing between Labour and Conservative, and a safe Tory Croydon South seat.
The changes proposed would also reconfigure the previously true blue Beckenham seat across the borough boundary in Bromley into a Conservative-Labour marginal.
Under the proposals, all the Croydon seats are near the minimum in size.
In the main, the borough’s wards are kept whole for the purpose of the re-allocation, with the exception of town centre Waddon ward, which currently sits mainly in Chris Philp’s Croydon South constituency.
To make sure their sums add up, the Commissioners want to split Waddon between their new Croydon North parliamentary seat, with an area mainly south of the Croydon Flyover remaining in Croydon South.
The very elongated Croydon North seat also takes in Longthornton ward in Merton (which at present is in the Labour-held Mitcham and Morden seat).
The new Norwood parliamentary seat includes two wards from the current Dulwich and West Norwood constituency: Gipsy Hill and Knight’s Hill.
Using Electoral Calculus current predictions by ward, it is possible to estimate the likely outcome of any election in the four new seats.
This would comprise the wards of Old Coulsdon, Coulsdon Town, Kenley, Purley and Woodcote, Sanderstead, Purley Oaks and Riddlesdown, South Croydon ward, part of Waddon (part of Bramley Hill, Haling Park Road, Southbridge Road west, Warham Road east, the Waldrons, Waldronhyrst). It loses Selsdon Vale and Forestdale ward and Selsdon and Addington Village.
Electorate 69,967. Likely Con majority 11,000.
This might be better described as a Croydon West seat, as it runs all the way from the top of Purley Way, on the border with Purley, to the River Graveney in Merton. This would comprise part of Waddon ward, plus Fairfield, Broad Green, West Thornton, Selhurst, Norbury and Pollards Hill, Bensham Manor, Longthornton (Merton – Mitcham and Morden).
Electorate 70,674. Likely Lab majority 19,000.
From Croydon Arena to West Norwood, bringing all of greater Norwood into one seat. Railway line to Victoria on western border as per the old Croydon North East. This includes the wards of Woodside, South Norwood, Thornton Heath, Norbury Park, Crystal Palace and Upper Norwood, plus Gipsy Hill and Knight’s Hill (currently in Lambeth seat Dulwich and West Norwood).
Electorate 69,875. Likely Lab majority 22,000.
This would reinstate a constituency name last used until 1955. Like the Croydon Central seat it largely replaces, this would be a Conservative-Labour marginal. It is made up of the wards of Addiscombe West, Addiscombe East, Park Hill and Whitgift, Shirley North, Shirley South, Selsdon Vale and Forestdale, Selsdon and Addington Village, New Addington North, New Addington South.
Electorate 70,201. Marginal seat.
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