BUDGET 2024: Inside Croydon has already interviewed an Oxford professor about the state of the economy and sent an open letter to Rachel Reeves about what needs to be done for England’s beleagured local councils. Now it seems the Chancellor’s been getting advice from other, more unlikely corners, too
Budget advice: former Tory MP Gavin Barwell
Gavin Barwell dispensed some of his own political advice yesterday, ahead of today’s Budget.
Semi-detatched from the Tory Party (though he admits he’s still a Conservative member – he just can’t decided which of the two evils to vote for in their leadership contest), the former Croydon MP and Downing Street Chief of Staff nonetheless appears still to enjoy sharing the benefits of his experience.
Today’s is the first British government Budget to be delivered by a woman as Chancellor but, more importantly, it is the first Labour Budget for 14 years.
And after 14 years of the Tories, including Barwell, gaslighting the British public, that presents Chancellor Rachel Reeves with some difficult problems.
The MP for Croydon Central between 2010 and 2017, Barwell never rose to any of the highest ministerial offices, such as Chancellor. But his time as chief adviser to Theresa May when she was Prime Minister has given him some insight into how the biggest political events, such as the Budget, are meant to work.
Candid: a piece of Barwell’s advice, which no one had asked for
So yesterday morning, “Lord” Barwell unloaded on Twitter. It is not known whether anyone in No11, or the Treasury, was paying attention.
“It’s hard not to feel sympathy for the policy choices Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves faced as they prepared tomorrow’s Budget, but they have made the politics even harder than they needed to be,” Barwell began.
“Only the most partisan Conservative would deny that the last Government has left its successor with some difficult fiscal choices, even if Rachel Reeves is understating the wider economic inheritance (accelerating growth and falling inflation and interest rates).
“There’s a reason Jeremy Hunt [the last Tory Chancellor] didn’t set departmental budgets for 2025-2026 – doing so would have exposed what the overall budget and choices to prioritise the NHS and defence would have meant for other public services.
“And the fiscal ‘room for manoeuvre’ is limited. Debt as a percentage of GDP and the tax burden are both at historically high levels.
“Labour blame all this on the Conservatives, but if we want to face up to harsh reality as Keir Starmer put it yesterday, it is primarily the result of the UK being poorer due to four shocks in a short space of time – the financial crisis, Brexit, covid and the energy crisis.” Yes… the “it was nuffink to do with us, guv” Tory excuse.
“Most people would acknowledge that many of our public services are in a poor state and need more funding as well as reform. Polling shows the No1 issue voters will judge this Government on is improving the NHS.
Time to face the music: what do Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer have to offer today?
“If Rachel Reeves doesn’t provide enough funding to achieve this, Labour will pay a heavy political price.
“Most economists would agree that the UK doesn’t invest enough in its economic and social infrastructure…”.
Funny how Barwell never mentioned any of this in the decade when he was at least close to power, between 2010 and 2019.
“If she doesn’t address this, she won’t get the stronger growth that in the long term is the only way to find better public services.
“But the more money she finds for public services and investment, the more money she has to find from somewhere – and there are only three sources: cuts to lower priority budgets, more borrowing or higher taxes
“If she cuts lower priority budgets, she’ll be accused of Austerity Mk2. It sounds like she’ll say she isn’t doing this, but if you set demanding productivity targets – particularly for bits of government that have been squeezed in recent years – that may be the reality.
“We already know she is going to increase borrowing. The risk here is both the market reaction and the politics – debt interest payments are going to consume a growing share of government spending.
“And if she increases taxes, she will pay a political price – voters’ second concern is the cost of living – and there is a danger that she deters the business investment that we need to achieve higher growth
“You can try to ‘spin’ this (‘We’re not hitting working people’s pay packets’), but the reality is that there is no way of raising taxes without working people ultimately feeling it, either directly or indirectly in lower pay increases or price rises.
Final word: the end of Barwell’s Budget Twotter thread yesterday
“So Rachel Reeves is trying to find a tiny/possibly non-existent Goldilocks zone where she finds enough more for public services and investment without cutting too much in lower priority areas, borrowing too much or taxing too much. She deserves some sympathy.”
“The politics of this were always going to be difficult – voters want things that are difficult to deliver at the same time (better public services, lower taxes) – but Labour have made it much more difficult by not being candid before the election.
“The case Keir Starmer made yesterday (‘We need to pay higher taxes to avoid austerity’) is totally different to what he said before the election (‘Growth is the way to pay for better public services’).
“He made a deliberately opaque promise about not increas[ing] taxes on working people without defining either who working people are or what taxes they pay – and the Conservative campaign was such a shambles, this pledge was not subjected to much scrutiny.
“He can talk now about facing up to the harsh reality but he chose not to do that before the election, and he can hardly complain if many voters now feel they were duped.
“The thing about candour is it only works if applied consistently. You can’t be candid some of the time, but partisan or opaque at other times.”
Read more: Dear Rachel: Croydon’s a microcosm for much of what is wrong
Read (or listen) more: Oxford professor explains Budget in Andrew Fisher Interview
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ROTTEN BOROUGH AWARDS: In January 2024, Croydon was named among the country’s rottenest boroughs for a SEVENTH successive year in the annual round-up of civic cock-ups in Private Eye magazine
Labour and Conservatives working together to push the lie that you can’t raise taxes to pay for better public services.
Taxes may be at at historically high levels for people like us. But for millionaires and billionaires taxes are at historically low levels. The problem isn’t the amount of tax, it’s who is paying it.
The Conservative Party’s whole purpose is to protect the rich, and Labour are just copying them. The Greens have been quite clear that we need to increases taxes on the wealthy to make life better for all of us. A billionaire making another billion is of no benefit to anyone, not even the billionaire. But adding an extra billion to the budget for the NHS, or schools, or any of our other vital but underfunded services would make a difference.
before the general election labour promised that they would not increase taxes and they are doing the opposite by increasing taxes on businesses it will not stem the economic growth the only way for businesses to expand and to create jobs is by lowering taxation under this labour government the poor are no much better off the cost of living keeps rising peoples salary remains the same sanctions still remain on the unemployed and benefits like universal credit for the unemployed are paltry with the ever rise in the cost of living the labour party should be ashamed of itself labour like to blame the conservatives for the problems we are now facing but it is as gavin barwell put it it was down to a financial crisis brexit and covid it was not entirely the conservative partys fault the conservatives had always been a party of cutting taxes even though they had to raise them in the last conservative government but their main aim is to really cut taxes labour will not get my support in future elections i will be voting conservative
Brexit was their fault. They were running scared of ukip so promised a referendum. Then lost it. Brexit was and is massively expensive and has no economic benefit at all.
It is very informative that the Tory drones, including Philp (who played his own part in crashing the economy and doubling most Croydon home-owners’ mortgage repayments), defend their economic record by stating they had to spend more because of covid.
They never dare mention the massive damage to the economy caused by Brexit.
Shamefully they announced all the budget details well in advance of the chancellor’s speech. It was a waste of time.