WALTER CRONXITE, political editor, on the stark news contained within the latest, most extensive piece of opinion polling, one month before election day

Man of the people: Tory ‘Congo’ Chris Philp was playing football at Selhurst Park yesterday – it might be his last chance if he loses his Westminster seat

With General Election day exactly one calendar month away, the latest and most extension polling done yet predicts a complete wipe-out of the Conservatives in this part of south London, with the Tories losing both seats in Sutton to the LibDems and policing minister “Congo” Chris Philp turfed out in Croydon South, as Croydon – from the borough boundary with Streatham all the way to Coulsdon – is turned Labour red.

The latest YouGov MRP poll released last night shows that the Conservatives are set to be reduced to just four MPs in the capital as a result of the July 4 General Election.

The data shows that the Tories are on course to hold just Hornchurch and Upminster, Orpington, Old Bexley and Sidcup and Romford, “although the latter two are close contests with the Conservative and Labour parties within a couple of points of each other”, YouGov says.

Labour is set to increase its hold in the capital with 65 MPs.

The Liberal Democrats are on course for six London MPs – Carshalton and Wallington, Kingston and Surbiton, Richmond Park, Sutton and Cheam, Twickenham and Wimbledon.

There are, as with most opinion polls, disparities. YouGov admits that they have not factored in “Independent’s Day” and Jeremy Corbyn’s run in Islington North (“the model will only reflect this when candidate lists are officially published”), and the polling was done before Nigel Farridge made his announcement yesterday that he would stand for the Reform Party in Clacton.

The YouGov poll also fails to take account of “The Croydon Effect”, of which more later…

Across Britain, this polling shows Labour securing a landslide victory, increasing its number of seats from 202 in 2019 to 420 in 2024. The Conservatives are set to suffer significant defeats, securing just 140 seats across the country. This would be the fewest number of Conservative MPs since 1906.

Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt and Jacob Rees-Mogg are predicted to be joining Philp down the Job Centre.

All change: how the Greater London parliamentary constituencies might look come July 5, according to YouGov’s latest General Election polling

“The traditional Tory heartlands of Maidenhead (Theresa May’s old seat) and Surrey Heath (Michael Gove’s former constituency) are going to be tightly fought between Conservatives and LibDems with their former Tory representatives standing down,” YouGov says.

For details of every constituency in London, visit https://yougov.co.uk/elections/uk/2024.

There, you will find the figures which will bring tears to the eyes of Tory voters, and understand why, according to our mole in Croydon Conservatives’ Purley HQ, there’s been some very worried conversations in the past couple of weeks.

Philp and his state-funded office was very busy before the campaign period proper started in using their parliamentary email address list – the result of years of deliberate data-mining through bogus petitions – to pump out some “local candidate” messaging, detailing everything, anything, that Philp might be associated with in the borough during his nine years as MP.

But nowhere, except in the smallest of legally-required small print, have Philp’s emails or leaflets mentioned that he is a member of Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Government.

Underwhelming: Labour’s campaign event in Purley on Saturday showed that all major parties are struggling for turnout from activists, a vital factor on polling day

YouGov’s poll predicts a Labour win in Croydon South, by 42% of the vote to 35%, with the LibDems taking 9%, Reform 7% and Greens 5%.

As previously noted, this was all before Farridge stuck his oar in, which might give a lift to Reform’s vote elsewhere in the country, too. And despite what the “disingenuous grifter” (as he was described by the King’s bankers) claims, those votes are likely to come from hard-core, Brexiteer Tories, rather than Labour.

But there is no “Croydon Effect” factored in to YouGov’s polling. Such as Labour’s candidate in Croydon South, the underwhelming Ben Taylor, and the simmering resentment among all voters over the damage done to the borough by Tony Newman and his Numpties at the council. Turnouts at Croydon Labour events, even since the election was called, are notably much smaller than in 2019, which could be significant when it comes to getting the vote out on July 4.

The LibDems in Croydon South might also be helping the Conservatives, however unwittingly, by hardly campaigning at all and so not offering “moderate Tories” (apparently, there is such a thing) an alternative.

So the situation might not be completely irretrievable for Philp and the Tories in Croydon South – though it might see them drawing on their activists and campaign resource from the rest of Croydon in a desperate late effort to hang on to what little they have got.

Radio Ga-ga: Starmer front-bencher Sarah Jones has been busy in Labour’s national campaign. In Croydon West, she’s expected to poll 68%

Elsewhere across the other three Croydon seats, there’s overwhelming wins predicted for Labour.

In Croydon East, YouGov has Labour on 51% and Tories on 24% (so at least saving their deposit).

“The size of these margins,” according to one campaign insider, “are so huge that voters really can vote for who they want – none of this ‘lend us your vote’ nonsense like we had in last month’s London elections. Because it is already looking like a foregone conclusion.”

In Croydon West, where Sarah Jones, the MP for Croydon Central from 2017 is the candidate in the new constituency, Labour’s vote share is predicted at a stonking 68%, with the Greens on 10% (before yesterday’s announcement by their candidate, Marley King, that she won’t be standing), and the Tories (Waddon councillor Simon Fox) relegated into third place.

It might be worse still for the Tories. Fox is now notionally unemployed: since the dissolution of Parliament on May 30, he no longer works as a parliamentary assistant to an MP, as he did for Chris Philp. So, Fox may end up doing more campaigning for his erstwhile boss in Croydon South than he does in Croydon West.

There’s a similarly overwhelming picture for Labour in Streatham and Croydon North, where Steve Reed is predicted to get almost two-thirds of all votes. The LibDems (candidate Croydon councillor Claire Bonham) are predicted by YouGov to finish second here, on 12%, as the Tories end up only fourth.

Overall, YouGov’s projections, based on a much broader sample, are much more realistic than most of the previous polling we have seen. But they still depend on questioning maybe just 100 in a constituency of 85,000 people. And as in almost every election in modern British history, there does tend to be a closing of the gap between the leading contenders in the final weeks and days before the election.

On his way out?: Tory Elliot Colburn won Carshalton and Wallington by a small margin in 2019, and is predicted to lose on July 4

Of other nearby and neighbouring seats, YouGov have the LibDems regaining Carshalton and Wallington with 41% of the vote as the Tory vote collapses to 26%, ahead of Labour’s 18%.

Sutton and Cheam, meanwhile, might be one of those banana skin seats where the pollsters slip up. Just as with “The Croydon Effect”, a national poll often does not reflect the situation on the ground, where dissension among the LibDems over their choice of candidate saw them waste two years on internal squabbles.

YouGov has the seat held by Tory Paul Scully since 2015 at 37% LibDem and 31% Conservative (Labour tailed off at 16%). That’s the kind of gap which Tory candidate Tom Drummond might close between now and July 4, especially when you consider that last month it was the Tories, and not the LibDems, that won the St Helier West council by-election (in C&W) from Labour.

And to think: we only have another four weeks of this to endure…

For more information on where to vote on July 4 and for the full list of who is standing for election in your constituency, use our widget here:

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