After a week of selections and elections on either side of the Atlantic, ANDREW FISHER looks at how the second coming of President Trump might affect British politics
New alliance: how much of what happens in the United States will shape politics in the United Kingdom?
In Britain, the election of Donald Trump as US President is seen as a negative outcome by a majority of Labour and Conservative voters – a rare moment of unity in an increasingly divided political landscape.
Nevertheless, the influence of the Trumpian approach on British politics has been great, with the whipping up of hate and division, the demonisation of migrants, a looser relationship with the truth and, largely, an absence of policies. Grievances not solutions.
Only Reform voters welcomed the second coming of Trump. But the growth of Reform’s electoral influence has already had a significant impact on the modern Conservative Party.
Gavin Barwell, the former Croydon MP and sometime Chief of Staff to Theresa May in Downing Street, tweeted during the recent Conservative leadership contest that if Robert Jenrick “wins on Saturday, it is clear that the Conservatives Party will go full Trump/Farage, attacking our institutions and promoting online conspiracy theories.
“I guess that’s what his supporters want, but for the rest of us it would be deeply concerning.”
The Conservatives, trounced in the General Election in July, have just selected Kemi Badenoch as their leader. In her leadership campaign, Badenoch suggested maternity pay and maternity leave were “excessive”, that people with autism get “economic privileges”, and that the minimum wage was “overburdening businesses”.
It’s unlikely that the election of Badenoch has pleased Lord Barwell though. When she topped the MPs’ poll earlier this year, Barwell tweeted, “The Conservative Party following in the fine tradition of parties who have lost elections choosing to go further away from the electorate.”
Number crunching: even Conservative voters are wary of Trump as US President
At her first Prime Minister’s Questions as leader of the opposition yesterday, Badenoch went for trivia – David Lammy had said some nasty things about President Trump in the past.
Yet polling shows that 51% of Conservative voters are “very unhappy” or “fairly unhappy” at Trump’s election victory.
Badenoch’s next subject at the despatch box was to oppose Labour’s extension of inheritance tax to those who own farmland – the richest landowners representing a tiny percentage of the population who have previously been exempt from the tax.
The sound you can hear is the world’s smallest violin playing for those who stand to inherit farmland worth millions of pounds and who now might have to cough up some tax.
Labour has real splits in its electoral coalition from unpopular decisions to remove Winter Fuel Payments from around 10million pensioners and from increasing the fare cap by 50% for millions of bus passengers outside of London.
Badenoch could have tapped into these concerns, but instead she followed a Reform-influenced Trumpian agenda, playing to her activist base rather than wider voter concerns.
Different priorities: Nigel Farage has spent more time lately in the US than he has in Clacton
Reform’s leader Nigel Farage, who last month complained about Labour Party staffers going to campaign for Democrat Presidential candidate Kamala Harris, spent much of the past week out in America campaigning for Trump. Trump described Farage as “our European friend”, which is perhaps not the billing the ardent Brexiteer would have given himself.
Like the United Kingdom, the United States has a first-past-the-post system in which there are safe seats and there are marginals – or “swing states” as the Americans call them.
Trump won in 2016 and again in 2024 by appealing to America’s “Rust Belt” – claiming the mantle of deindustrialised working class American communities, with the promise to “bring back jobs” and “Make America Great Again”.
In doing so, he has successfully cleaved a segment of their natural base away from the Democrats – this year flipping states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia.
It’s worth pointing out that the US economy had done relatively well in recent years. The United States was the best-performing G7 nation for economic growth in the Biden years. But that wasn’t enough. People hadn’t felt that in their pockets, and rampant unregulated profiteering had meant corporations took a large chunk of those gains, while in real terms, wages fell.
In other words, American politicians failed to ensure economic growth was translated into better living standards for the majority of American citizens.
This is an important lesson for politicians in Britain, like recently elected Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Diplomatic or just delusional?: how Britain’s Prime Minister responded to Trump’s election, using the President’s favourite platform, X
Here energy bills, water bills, rail fares, bus fares, housing costs and Council Tax are all rising above the rate of inflation. The Office for Budget Responsibility analysis following Labour’s recent Budget stated that: “Compared to our March forecast, the level of real household disposable income per person is … 1¼% lower by the start of 2029.”
The second Trump presidency also poses many questions for Starmer’s Labour government.
The President’s commitment to higher tariffs (if translated into policy) could hinder global trade, and reduce economic growth globally, as the US is a massive consumer market. In turn, that could downgrade the prospect of growth in Britain.
Trump’s seemingly pro-Putin talking points on Ukraine, and previous threats to cut off US funding to the country invaded by Russian forces, could hand victory to Putin – unless Europe significantly increases its support to fill the void. That could also in turn trigger a refugee crisis in eastern Europe.
That said, Trump has frequently mused about defunding or even leaving NATO, without ever carrying out such threats.
Trump’s climate change denialism could put the United States – one of the world’s largest polluters – even further away from the necessary path to meet its global targets, and could hinder efforts for action worldwide if the US fails to act.
Nevertheless, Starmer diplomatically posted that, “From defence and security to growth and prosperity, the relationship between the UK and US is incredibly strong and will continue to thrive.”
Whether that turns out to be true – or even desirable – we will see from January, when Trump returns to the White House.
From 2015 to 2019, Andrew Fisher was the Labour Party’s Director of Policy under Jeremy Corbyn. Fisher is also the author of The Failed Experiment – and how to build an economy that works, and now writes columns for InsideCroydon, the i newspaper and is a regular pundit on BBC and Sky News programmes. - As well as his column, Andrew is now also conducting regular podcast interviews, in-depth and informed with specialists and national figures, sharing their expertise with Croydon
Andrew Fisher’s recent columns and interviews:
- Dear Rachel: Croydon’s a microcosm for much of what is wrong
- Oxford professor explains Budget in Andrew Fisher Interview
- Dear Angela: It’s time for you to act and fund Croydon fairly
- The fundamental dishonesty around this dog-whistle election
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ROTTEN BOROUGH AWARDS: In January 2024, Croydon was named among the country’s rottenest boroughs for a SEVENTH successive year in the annual round-up of civic cock-ups in Private Eye magazine
It is strange that unlike Biden, the state of Trump’s physical and mental health hardly bears a mention by the media, but the eyes and ears don’t lie.
His physical and mental decline is for all to see and well his interminable ramblings may have always been the same, they are even more interminable with the lower energy of delivery and spaces appearing in the flow of mindnumbing words.
He is not exactly a delegator and the certain level of restraint the old Republican Party had on him during his first term has now evaporated for the second.
My prediction is for this to be like the era of gerontocracy of the Russian Communist Politbureau with him unavaliable to be seen and more dormancy in his actions as his retinue manoeuvre in the background to be in the most beneficial position as he is barely able to function.
Taking all that into consideration, how much attention, or interrogation, has there been of JD Vance?
If it’s like his first term he will be spending most of his time on the golf course.
I wonder if Mr Trump regards being called a Nazi as ‘trivia’?
Oh FFS – Kamala called him a fascist when her woeful campaign was on its last legs and she was desperate. It’s a tragedy that the Democrats couldn’t come up with a half-decent candidate and most of the blame for that is poor old Biden’s refusal to go
It is on the record that Trump has expressed admiration for the Nazi Regime and it’s apparent millitary prowess.