VOTE 2014: Opinion polls published by the Evening Standard suggest that the outcome of next Thursday’s local election in Croydon could see a split council, with the Conservatives and Labour both with 35 seats each.
The Tories, under the leadership florid-faced Mike Fisher, have had control of Croydon Town Hall since 2006 and won the last local elections four years ago with 37 seats to 33.
According to a YouGov poll for the Evening Boris, voting intentions of Londoners for the local elections are 40 per cent Labour, Conservatives down one point at 33 per cent and LibDems down one point at 11 per cent.
This bucks national polling trends. Yet Croydon, with its decidedly small “c” conservative leanings, tends to buck London trends also. Labour is reckoned to need at least an eight-point margin in polls to be able to take control of Croydon Council.
The unknown and unpredictable factor in all of this will be the turn-out on the day and UKIP – with European elections being staged at the same time, there’s wide expectation that the anti-EU, anti-politics party might yet have a role to play in the outcome.
The YouGov poll tallies with some research published yesterday by the London Communications Agency, which describes battleground borough Croydon as “too close to call” and predicts a hung council.
“We predict this will be the tightest race in London,” they say.
“The result in the elections will be determined by only a handful of marginal wards, mainly in the centre and east. Labour only need to take three council seats from the Conservatives to take outright control here and, based on current national polling and the possibility of UKIP taking votes from the Tories, this is certainly a possibility.”
The same researchers are predicting that the Tories will win control of Kingston from the LibDems, Merton will see Labour strengthen their control of the council, and no change in who runs other neighbouring boroughs in Sutton (LibDem, albeit with a reduced majority) Southwark and Lambeth (both Labour).
Inside Croydon’s recent coverage of the local elections:
- Policy analysis 1: The incinerator
- Policy analysis 2: Hammersfield
- Tories accused of ‘lies on a grand scale’ on Council Tax
- Conservatives snub hustings as sham candidates exposed
- Threat of UKIP forces Tories to press the panic button
- Questions mount over political influence at council
- Council allowances and local politicians’ secret consensus
- The list of candidates for the May 22 local elections
Coming to Croydon
- Warehouse International Playwriting Festival, May 17-18
- Riverside Animal Centre Open Day, May 18
- Coulsdon East local election hustings, May 19
- St Giles’ primary school open morning, May 21
- David Lean Cinema: The Rocket, May 22
- Songs From The Ledge, Spread Eagle Theatre, May 23
- Greek Myths: stories and mask-making, May 27
- Howard Marks: Scholar, Smuggler, Prisoner, Scribe, May 29
- David Lean Cinema: Dallas Buyers Club, May 29
- Tales from Ancient Greece, Upper Norwood Library, May 29
- Upper Norwood Library Book Club, May 31
- Stitch Pitch quilting workshop, Upper Norwood Library, June 2
- Croydon Tech City “summit”, June 6
- An Improvised Murder, Spread Eagle Theatre, June 7
- Lakes Playground Action Group fun day, June 14
- Elm Tree Cottage garden open day, June 15
- Norwood Society Talk: The Concrete Church, June 19
- Classic Car Show at Purley Rotary Fields, June 22
- Crystal Palace Overground Festival, June 26-29
- Warnings to the Curious, Spread Eagle Theatre, June 27
- South Norwood Allotments open day, June 28
- Fragile, Spread Eagle Theatre, July 24-26
- Elm Tree Cottage garden open day, Aug 10
- Norwood Society Talk: War Memorials, Sep 18
- Norwood Society Talk: From Fire Station to Theatre, Oct 16
- Norwood Society Talk: Lambeth’s Archives, Nov 20
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